Politics latest: PM challenged over general election prediction - as warning issued over China 'threat' (2024)

Two of Westminster's best-connected journalists, Sky News's Sam Coates and Politico's Jack Blanchard, guide you through their top predictions for the next seven days in British politics.

Following the local and mayoral elections, Jack and Sam discuss how Rishi Sunak will try to get back onto the front foot and whether the Conservative rebels will continue to plot against him.

They also predict that the country will come out of recession and look forward to a new SNP leader in Scotland following the resignation of Humza Yousaf.

Email with your thoughts and rate how their predictions play out:jackandsam@sky.ukorjackandsam@politico.co.uk

Over to Scotland, where Humza Yousaf has just signed his resignation letter as first minister.

His successor as SNP party leader, John Swinney, could take over the top job as soon as today, pending a vote in Holyrood.

Sadiq Khan has just signed the Declaration of Acceptance of Office to begin his historic third term as the mayor of London.

He received 1,088,225 votes (43.8%) to be re-elected, a majority of nearly 276,000 over Tory rival Susan Hall, who secured 812,397 votes (32.7%).

Continuing his conversation with Sky News, Iain Duncan Smith said bluntly: "China is a threat."

The former Tory leader said: "It threatens the way we live our lives, it threatens who we are

"It's part now, a key part of the axis of totalitarian states - which is China, North Korea, Iran, and Russia.

"They're busy in the Middle East, it was through knowledge of that Iran created this problem in Gaza by encouraging Hamas to make their attacks, knowing full well the attention of the US would turn to Israel and not Ukraine, and give Russia some breathing room.

"Until we wake up to the fact everything we do with China has a very big price tag, until we actually get down to saying this is what is happening, and we're calling China out.

"If we're robust with them, they will understand, and be more malleable in the end."

Iain Duncan Smith, the former Tory leader, has praised Sky News for reporting that China is understood to be behind a Ministry of Defence data leak.

Asked if Britain's economic interests should trump national security, the MP says: "No."

He notes he is one of several MPs sanctioned by Beijing for having "raised the issue of the genuine genocide of the Uyghur people in Xinjiang", which the Chinese government has repeatedly denied.

Mr Duncan-Smith says China's critics in parliament have faced a "battle" with ministers at times - before congratulating Sky News and our deputy political editor Sam Coates for breaking the story last night.

"I congratulate Sam (Coates) and Sky for getting this immediately and being able to say it was China, others have not done that," he says.

West 'massively dependent on China'

The MP goes on to say it is "certainly China who has been doing this", adding that the issue is that the West is now "massively dependent on China".

He points out that the majority of cars are made in China, as are millions of products sold online, and China is aware of this dependency.

"America has begun to wake up to this and is now being much tougher. We've been pretty hopeless, really."

The results of the local elections made for grim reading for the Conservative Party.

Last Thursday, polls opened in 107 English councils, with thousands of seats up for grabs.

Ultimately, the Tories lost 474 seats and 12 councils, while Labour gained 186 and eight respectively.

You can see the results in full below:

There were also a number of mayoral elections.

In total, 11 mayors were elected. Here are the results in full:

• Tees Valley, Conservative Ben Houchen re-elected
• York and North Yorkshire, Labour's David Skaith
• North East, Labour's Kim McGuinness elected
• East Midlands, Labour's Claire Ward elected
• Liverpool City Region, Labour's Steve Rotheram re-elected
• South Yorkshire, Labour's Oliver Coppard re-elected
• Greater Manchester, Labour's Andy Burnham re-elected
• West Yorkshire, Labour's Tracey Brabin re-elected
• London, Labour's Sadiq Khan re-elected
• Salford, Labour's Paul Dennett re-elected
• West Midlands, Labour's Richard Parker defeated Conservative incumbent Andy Street

You can have a look at the results in more detail here:

The Sky News live poll tracker - collated and updated by our Data and Forensics team - aggregates various surveys to indicate how voters feel about the different political parties.

With the local elections complete, Labour is still sitting comfortably ahead, with the Tories trailing behind.

See the latest update below - and you can read more about the methodology behind the trackerhere.

Rachel Reeves, the shadow chancellor, today rejected the suggestion the local election results point to a hung parliament.

Responding to a question after her speech in London, she says: "No votes have been cast in the next general election and we are fighting for every single vote.

"But the results last week, not just the percentage shares or the number of councils won or the number of mayors won - including in the prime minister's own backyard of York and North Yorkshire - but the places that we were winning are the places that we need to win to form the next government."

She adds: "I don't think the results last week point to a hung parliament."

Rishi Sunak yesterday said the results of the next general election are not a "foregone conclusion", after his party's slate of defeats in the local elections.

The prime minister was speaking off the back of analysis of the resultsconducted by Sky Newswhich indicated the country was heading towards a hung parliament.

You can see Sky's projection - which puts Labour short of an overall majority - in the link below:

Rachel Reeves, the shadow chancellor, is now taking questions from journalists who had gathered to watch her speech, including our political correspondent Darren McCaffrey.

He asks whether it is now a policy of Labour that economic success is not just measured by data, but also by how people in the UK feel.

If that is the case, how is that worked out?

Ms Reeves says: "In the end, what success looks like is how people feel. Whether there is money in their bank balance, whether they have got enough to pay the rent, the mortgage, the bills.

"For too many people today, that is just not the reality."

She adds: "The mark of success is if people feel they are better off."

Darren also asked about the Ministry of Defence hack, and whether the government is going far enough with China.

Ms Reeves says: "It's deeply concerning."

The frontbencher adds the UK "should work with China where its in our national interest to do so".

But, she says, a "hard line" should be taken in areas of national security.

The Chinese embassy in the UK has responded to a massive data breach involving the Ministry of Defence, a hack which Sky News understands came from China.

In a statement, the embassy said such claims were "completely fabricated and malicious slanders".

"We strongly oppose such accusations. China has always firmly fought all forms of cyber attacks according to law. China does not encourage, support or condone cyber attacks," the embassy said.

"At the same time, we oppose the politicisation of cyber security issues and the baseless denigration of other countries without factual evidence.

"China has always upheld the principle of non-interference in each other’s internal affairs.

"China has neither the interest nor the need to meddle in the internal affairs of the UK.

"We urge the relevant parties in the UK to stop spreading false information, stop fabricating so called China threat narratives, and stop their anti-China political farce."